电力系统分区 日本供电告急(有声)
A Country Divided: Japan's Electric BottleneckAdvertising boards on buildings are seen without illumination at Tokyo's Shibuya district. Rolling blackouts are crippling a number of industries.
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MELISSA BLOCK, host: This is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. From NPR News, I'm Melissa Block.
ROBERT SIEGEL, host: And I'm Robert Siegel.
Rolling blackouts are expected to continue in the Tokyo area for months. That's largely because of the damaged nuclear power plants in Japan's Fukushima Prefecture.
The giant utility that serves the region, Tokyo Electric Power Company(东京电力), or TEPCO, has lost 20 percent of its power capacity.
As NPR's John Ydstie reports, the blackouts are crippling businesses, from auto producers to fishmongers(鱼贩,鱼商).
JOHN YDSTIE: Even on a slow day, Tsukiji market, the world's largest fish market, is a beehive(蜂窝,蜂箱) of activity. Motorized carts buzz down narrow aisles carrying tuna carcasses(尸体). They're sawed into chunks and shipped to restaurants in Tokyo and around the world.
Normally, these aisles would be jammed with buyers. Today they're empty. Mr. Kaoru, a wholesaler, blames the blackouts.
Mr. KAORU (Wholesaler): (Through translator) I predict one-third of the wholesalers in the market will close the shop, the business. Main reason is the power source.
YDSTIE: The rolling blackouts are reducing train service, making commuting unpredictable, so people don't stay downtown eating and drinking after work. The result is fish sales at Tsukiji are down about 50 percent.
In the morning, the blackouts mean some rail commuters can't get to work on time. That's a problem for the big auto manufacturer Nissan.
Mr. ANDY PALMER (Senior Vice President, Nissan): Electricity going down creates its own damage.
YDSTIE: Andy Palmer is a senior vice president at Nissan. He's trying to get the company's auto plants up and running. But he's plagued by power outages that shut down production and damage equipment.
Mr. PALMER: Certainly the power outages are something that we're having to work with. Obviously, it's partially a negotiation with the local authorities.
YDSTIE: But so far, TEPCO, one of the biggest privately-owned power companies in the world, says it can't guarantee power to anyone. TEPCO says, when blackouts are required we do not discriminate among our customers, whether industrial or residential.
The problem is these rolling blackouts could continue for many months even years.
Professor TATSUO HATTA (President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo): This is a real problem for those factories which need uninterrupted supplies.
YDSTIE: Professor Tatsuo Hatta, president of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, says the situation might cause some companies to move.
Prof. HATTA: It's clear that from their viewpoint they'd better move their plant to the western part of Japan where electricity is aplenty.
YDSTIE: But wouldn't it be much easier to send the surplus power from one side of Japan to the other to ease the blackouts? Well, that's harder than you might think, says Professor Hatta.
Prof. HATTA: One major problem is that the east and west of Japan have different electric cycles and the capacity of the connectors are very much limited.
YDSTIE: That's partly an accident of history. Eastern Japan followed the German model and has a 50-cycle electrical power grid. The west used the American model and has a 60-cycle grid. Transferring power from one grid to another requires a very expensive facility. And there are currently just three connections between eastern and western Japan.
That bottleneck means the power transfer is just a trickle, even during this national emergency, and creating more capacity would take years.
Hatta says, up until now, Japan's big utility companies, including TEPCO, liked the arrangement because it protected their monopoly pricing and made them very powerful politically.
Prof. HATTA: The users of electricity like Japan Steel wouldn't say anything against electric utility companies. I mean, they are so much afraid. And also many politicians wouldn't touch those electric utility companies.
YDSTIE: Hatta says the situation must change to reduce the stranglehold(抑制,束缚) Japan's utilities have on the country's energy users.
Prof. HATTA: One possibility is that on this occasion Japanese government nationalize TEPCO.
YDSTIE: The government could keep TEPCO's transmission lines and sell off its power plants to smaller producers who would compete to sell power to customers. For the time being, TEPCO says it's doing everything it can to secure more power.
The stakes are incredibly high. Power consumption normally doubles during the heat of the summer. Right now it seems unlikely TEPCO will be able to meet the demand, threatening more disruption for Japanese companies and workers, and greater damage to Japan's fragile economy.
John Ydstie, NPR News, Tokyo.
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电力严重不足拖累日本经济
日本大地震导致东京电力公司核电和火力发电设施损坏严重，供电能力受到很大影响。由于无法满足用电需求，日本不得不采取计划停电等措施，在给人们生活带来极大不便的同时，对日本经济也造成沉重打击，严重拖累经济复苏。
据日本媒体报道，丰田24日宣布28日起恢复对三种车型的生产，其余则依旧停产，丰田在美国的工厂也因为依赖于日本国内的组件供应中断而被迫全面停产。本田则宣布要等到4月3日才能恢复生产。日产是“目前还无恢复的眉目”。尽管大阪、名古屋和九州一带的工厂并未受到地震和海啸的影响，但也不得不停工，因为很多配件来自重灾区福岛、岩手和宫城县。
东京电力公司的供电能力在大震灾之前为5200万千瓦，震后急剧下降到3100万千瓦。据东京电力公司有关人士说，东京电力公司的供电能力今后不可能再超过5000万千瓦。因此，媒体认为，在未来很长一段时间内，日本供电形势都会比较紧张，实施计划停电等措施明年也可能难以避免。
但计划停电给日本企业生产带来混乱，特别是半导体工厂，临时停电和电压不稳导致生产线停止，正在制造的产品全部报废，生产线需要清洗，再次启动要一周时间。炼钢的高炉原则上需要一天24小时连续运转，一旦停电，对生产将造成严重影响。
很多日本企业都出现类似情况。为了减小停电对日本企业的影响，日本经团联提出限制电力需求总量的方式，即减少每个工厂用电的总量，迫使工厂削减生产规模。但即使从一个工厂角度来说没有超过本厂用电总量，如果集中用电电量超负荷仍有可能造成大规模停电。
日本第一生命经济研究所经济学家永滨利广认为，如果限制电力需求总量，东京电力公司一年减少电力供应25%，企业缩小生产规模将导致日本的实际国内生产总值增长率下降1%，用金额来表示，约减少5.2万亿日元（约合643亿美元）。在震灾影响经济增长的基础上，加上限制电力需求总量的影响，2011年度日本的实际国内生产总值可能会是零增长。
日本大和综合研究所首席经济学家熊谷亮丸认为形势更为严峻。他指出，日本整体用电一年减少10%，矿工业生产减产约9%，将导致实际国内生产总值增长率减少2.8%，用金额表示，约减少15万亿日元（约合1854亿美元）。
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