英语阅读：Forecasting social unrest and the search for sensationalism
There are concerns the current context is ripe for disturbance.This fear is fed by the current economic downturn where an official 20
million migrant workers have lost their jobs.
Alongside this group stand 6 million university graduates, plus many
Chinese who have studied abroad and can't find work and have returned home, plus
others who have been working abroad though have recently have been laid off,
plus .7 to .8 million graduates from the year before who never managed to find a
job.
Now into this 'melting pot of mayhem' add several key anniversary dates
that fall this year to create an aura of ensuing doom and gloom. Monday's fire
next to the CCTV tower is now also being mentioned as an ominous sign of a
troubled year ahead.
Rather timely, tomorrow sees a presentation by Wang Erping of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, under the banner, Forecasting Social Unrest. His team at
the CAS Institute of Psychology has apparently constructed a methodology for
predicting domestic disturbance.
Paralleling these issues others also worry China has excessive nationalist
tendencies, which if not managed, could spin out of control endangering the
world.
This line of thought makes reference to the CNN fiasco that took place
March/ April last year. It's backed up by the 'anti-French agenda' that
developed in response to Sarkozy meeting the Dalai Lama and the manhandling of
paralympic fencer JinJing at the Paris Torch Relay last year. Conclusive
evidence is the incident on May 19 last year during the memorial to the
earthquake victims where crowds en masse were chanting "jiayou Zhonguo, jiayou
Wenchuan", which concerned many an observer.
Definitely times are tough, definitely a small minority may take the
opportunity to try and create disorder and definitely the Chinese people love
their country with a burning impassioned heart but if there is one thing that
dominates above all else it's that the overwhelming majority in the middle
kingdom value stability, condemn civil disorder and consider themselves a peace
loving people. Remember the keystone within the Chinese philosophy of life is
the concept of harmony.
Indeed huge reserves of energy have been snowballing over recent years no
more evident than in the breathtaking sprawl of many a mega city. We've had
space walks, bullet trains, home made jets and more. Economically the country
has found some stride though the current hurdle is certainly a challenge.
Environmentally hard lessons are being learnt but measures are being taken to
rectify this equation - no more evident than the drought currently blighting the
north and its response.
However if we are expecting the country to break out in civil war or to
take up arms to expel some pent up rage on another nation then we may be
disappointed.
The fourteen countries bordering China have been ironing out past
problems.
Some may fear a 'Lama loving Obama and hop-a-long Hillary' but relations
between the US and China are getting better not worse. Many feel the style of
Barack complements the Chinese mode of diplomacy and consensus building.
Trade protectionism and "Buy America" has its limits. China is awash with
American companies and their goods and we are not planning to boycott KFC,
McDonalds, Coke, Pepsi, Chrysler, Boeing, Buick and Brangelina any time
soon.
If Team Obama can resist the urge to sell weapons to Taiwan to make a quick
buck to fund another bailout then hopes remain. Remember it was the Pentagon's
promise breaking $6.5-billion arms sales to Taiwan back in October, a Halloween
Hamper of 30 Apache attack helicopters and 330 Patriot missiles, that led to the
current cessation of military ties between the US and China.
As for Japan, the first stop on Hilary's upcoming Tour de Asia, apart from
minor murmurings regarding the Diaoyu islands, things here have been on the
mend. Goodness gracious even last week the Japanese Supreme Court ordered a
rightist scholar, and publisher to pay a combined 4 million yen in damages to
Xia Shuqin, aged 80 regarding events in Nanjing in 1937.
Which reminds me, on this day 70 years ago, the Japanese Fifth Fleet took
Hainan where an estimated third of the island's male population were executed
for resisting. Hainan in particular was infamous for the imperial Japanese
army's use of sex slaves, and to this day "comfort women" who were forced into
military brothels, there were a reported 67 on the island, have been refused an
apology from any Japanese government, let alone compensation though a few are
still alive today.
But Japan during the Second World War, is not the Japan of today. Actually
in many respects it is a land under occupation. Contentious US military bases
remain scattered across her territory and the continual domination of the
Liberal Democratic Party for more than half a century contradicts the legitimacy
or appropriateness of the imposed western model of governance for her
people.
So let's just remember seven months after Hainan was taken Hitler launched
his invasion of Poland and World War II erupted. The economic circumstances and
pathetic statesmanship that culminated in that global conflagration are not so
distant or so divergent that they couldn't be repeated again today. But
precedent would suggest others, not China, would be the antagonists in this
event.
Forecasting social unrest, domestically or internationally, may have as
much success as predicting earthquakes.
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