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本文选自2011年5月21日The American Magazine
http://www.american.com/archive/2011/may/the-end-of-the-book
The End of the Book?
By John Steele Gordon
A). Amazon, by far the largest bookseller in the country, reported on May
19 that it is now selling more books in its electronic Kindle format than in the
old paper-and-ink format. That is remarkable, considering that the Kindle has
only been around for four years. E-books now account for 14 percent of all book
sales in this country and are increasing far faster than overall book sales.
E-book sales are up 146 percent over last year, while hardback sales increased 6
percent and paperbacks decreased 8 percent.
B). Does this spell the doom of the physical book? Certainly not
immediately, and perhaps not at all. What it does mean is that the book business
will go through a transformation in the next decade or so more profound than any
it has seen since Gutenberg introduced printing from moveable type in the
1450s.
C). Physical books will surely become much rarer in the marketplace. Mass
market paperbacks, which have been declining for years anyway, will probably
disappear, as will hardbacks for mysteries, thrillers, "romance fiction," etc.
Such books, which only rarely end up in permanent collections either private or
public, will probably only be available as e-books within a few years. Hardback
and trade paperbacks for "serious" nonfiction and fiction will surely last
longer. Perhaps it will become the mark of an author to reckon with that he or
she is still published in hard copy.
D). As for children's books, who knows? Children's books are like dog food
in that the purchasers are not the consumers, so the market (and the marketing)
is inherently strange.
E). For clues to the book’s future, let’s look at some examples of
technological change and see what happened to the old technology.
F). One technology replaces another only because the new technology is
better, cheaper, or both. The greater the differential, the sooner and more
thoroughly the new technology replaces the old. Printing with moveable type on
paper reduced the cost of producing a book by orders of magnitude compared with
the old-fashioned ones handwritten on vellum, which comes from sheepskin. A
Bible—to be sure, a long book—required vellum made from 300 sheepskins and
untold man-hours of scribe labor. Before printing arrived, a Bible cost more
than a middle-class house. There were perhaps 50,000 books in all of Europe in
1450. By 1500 there were 10 million.
G). But while printing quickly caused the handwritten book to go extinct,
handwriting lingered on well into the 16th century in the practice of
"rubricating" books, or hand drawing elaborate initial letters (often in red
ink, hence the term). Very special books are still occasionally produced on
vellum, but they are one-of-a-kind show pieces.
H). Sometimes a new technology doesn't drive the old one extinct, but only
parts of it while forcing the rest to evolve. The movies were widely predicted
to drive live theater out of the marketplace, but they didn't, because theater
turned out to have qualities movies could not reproduce. Equally, TV was
supposed to drive movies extinct but, again, did not.
I). Movies did, however, fatally impact some parts of live theater, such as
vaudeville. (Ironically, TV gave vaudeville a brief revival in the 1950s in such
shows as “The Ed Sullivan Show” and brought many of the old vaudeville
stars—Sophie Tucker, Jimmy Durante, Ben Blue—out of retirement.) And while TV
didn't kill movies, it did kill B pictures, shorts, and, alas, cartoons.
J). Nor did TV kill radio. Comedy and drama shows (“Jack Benny,” “Amos and
Andy,” “The Shadow”) all migrated to television. But because you can’t drive a
car and watch television at the same time, radio prime time became rush hour,
while music, talk, and news radio greatly enlarged their audiences. Radio is
today a very different business than in the late 1940s and a much larger
one.
K). Sometimes old technology lingers for centuries because of its symbolic
power. Mounted cavalry replaced the chariot on the battlefield around 1000 BC.
But chariots maintained their place in parades and triumphs right up until the
end of the Roman Empire 1,500 years later. The sword hasn't had a military
function for a hundred years, but is still part of an officer's full-dress
uniform, precisely because a sword always symbolized "an officer and a
gentleman."
L). Sometimes new technology is a little cranky at first. Television
repairman was a common occupation in the 1950s, for instance. And so the old
technology remains as a back up. Steam captured the North Atlantic passenger
business from sail in the 1840s because of its much greater speed. But
steamships didn't lose their rigging and sails until the 1880s, because early
marine engines had a nasty habit of breaking down. Until ships became large
enough (and engines small enough) to mount two engines side by side, they needed
to keep sails. (The high cost of steam and the lesser need for speed kept the
majority of the world’s ocean freight moving by sail until the early years of
the 20th century.)
M). Then there is the fireplace. Central heating was ubiquitous in upper-
and middle-class homes by the second half of the 19th century. But functioning
fireplaces remain to this day a powerful selling point in a house or apartment.
I suspect the reason is a deeply ingrained, atavistic love of fire. Fire was one
of the earliest major technological advances for humankind, providing heat,
protection, and cooked food (which is much easier to eat and digest). Human
control of fire goes back far enough (over a million years) that evolution could
have produced a genetic predisposition towards fire as a central aspect of a
human habitation (just consider the phrase "hearth and home").
N). Books—especially books the average person could afford—haven’t been
around long enough to produce evolutionary change in humans. But they have a
powerful hold on many people nonetheless, a hold extending far beyond their
literary content. At their best, they are works of art and there is a tactile
pleasure in books necessarily lost in e-book versions. The ability to quickly
flip through pages is also lost. And a room with books in it induces, at least
in some, a feeling not dissimilar to that of a fire in the fireplace on a cold
winter’s night.
O). For these reasons I think physical books will have a longer existence
as a commercial product than some currently predict. Like swords, books have
symbolic power. Like fireplaces, they induce a sense of comfort and warmth. And,
perhaps, similar to sails, they make a useful backup for when the lights go
out.
46. Authors still published in printed versions will be considered
important ones.
答案：D
解析：对应D段末句。printed versions(纸质版本)对应hard copy(印刷版本)，be considered important
ones(被认为重要)对应become the mark…to reckon(认为是标志)。
47. Some people are still in favor of printed books because of the sense of
touch they can provide.
答案：N
解析：对应N段第三句提到的tactile pleasure in books(书本的触觉上的愉悦)。
48. The radio business has changed greatly and now attracts more
listeners.
答案：J
解析：对应J段最后两句。changed greatly(巨大改变)对应a very different
business(相当不同的行业)，attracts more listeners(吸引更多听众)对应enlarged their
audience(扩大受众面)。
49. Contrary to many people’s prediction of its death, the film industry
survived.
答案：H
解析：对应H段第二句。many people’s prediction对应widely predicted。
50. Remarkable changes have taken place in the book business.
答案：A
解析：这是对A段所描述的电子书在近几年内大幅增长的现象的概括。
51. Old technology sometimes continues to exist because of its
reliability.
答案：L
解析：对应L段第三句。continues to
exist(继续存在)对应remain(保持)，reliability(可靠)对应backup(支持、后盾)。
52. The increase of e-book sales will force the book business to make
changes not seen for centuries.
答案：B
解析：对应B段第三句。make changes(做出改变)对应go through a transformation(经历转变)，not seen
for centuries是对该句后部分时间表达的概括。
53. A new technology is unlikely to take the place of an old one without a
clear advantage.
答案：F
解析：对应F段第一句。a clear advantage(明显优势)岁对better, cheaper or both的概括。take the
place of(代替)对应replace(代替)。
54. Paperbacks of popular literature are more likely to be replaced by
e-books.
答案：C
解析：完全对应C段第二句。
55. A house with a fireplace has a stronger appeal to buyers.
答案：M
解析：对应M段第三句。has a stronger appeal to buyers(对购买者有很强吸引力)对应a powerful selling
point(强劲卖点)。
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